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A Lesson in Strategy; When to Split 9s Could Help You Win

When should you split 9s?

I’ve asked some experts and their answer is simple: Split them against the dealer when the dealer shows a 2-6,8,9. Otherwise, stand.

Why you do this is mathematically based.

For two 9s, when the dealer’s upcard is two through six, or eight, 18 is moderately strong.

Standing in these situations will yield a profit averaged over large numbers of trials. An 18 isn’t as good as most folks think, though. Of the five totals a dealer can reach without busting, three beat it.

An initial nine is also potent, and kicking off with two nines offers higher average profit than standing on 18 when facing the indicated upcards.

It’s not the same as being dealt a total of 9 because after splitting you get a card on each nine dealt to you.

If you pull a 2 on a split-off nine, you can double on the resulting 11. An ace or 10 puts you ahead of your original 18.

A pair of nines against a nine is a Basic strategy split, but for a different reason. You can improve on either or both sides of the split with a 10 or ace as your automatic card, sitting pretty with positive expectation by standing on the 19 or 20. The chance of such a draw is five out of 13.

A deuce, one chance out of 13, sets you up to double with a strong 11. A nine leaves you where you were or with the chance to split again, according to house rules. The other seven chances out of 13 make matters worse.

Bottom line is bad and good news: no matter what you’re an underdog. The good news is that splitting leads to less of an average loss over many occurrences of this combination.

Some solid citizens wonder why, if splitting nines is good, why splitting 10s is one of the game’s most proscribed practices?

Statistical calculations provide the precise answers.

20 is a good ending position.

All this from experts. I am not an expert… but all this seems like good advice.